Egypt: "Sometimes, I feel accustomed to living in this slum..Other times, I pray to God to make me die"

Dozens of Egyptians died in Manshiet Nasser slum following a rockslide in 2008 (file photo) Ben Hubbard/IRIN

IRIN - Madiha Abdel-Salam lives in a small room with her six children in Manshiet Nasser, an Egyptian slum perched precariously on sandstone cliffs on the outskirts of Cairo.

When the children squeeze her out, the 42-year-old mother spends the night with neighbours. In the morning when one of the children gets up, she gets into that child's bed and takes a two-hour nap before going to work.

“Sometimes, I feel accustomed to living in this slum even though we lack the most basic needs,” Abdel-Salam told IRIN. “Other times, I pray to God to make me die. These are times when I lose hope of living like other humans.”

However, thanks to a government-backed campaign to raise funds to provide better homes, clean drinking water, sewage systems, schools, hospitals and jobs, things could soon begin to improve for the country’s millions of slum-dwellers.

“We all have this duty of doing whatever we can to improve the living conditions of the residents of these slums,” said Niazi Salam, an Egyptian businessman and one of the advocates of the initiative, known as the One Billion Pound Campaign. “As we rest in air-conditioned rooms in our homes, millions of other countrymen and women suffer in slums that lack the minimum standards for a decent living.”

There are hundreds of slums in Egypt, including 420 “unsafe” ones, according to the National Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, the government’s research arm.

The agency recently tried to survey some of these “unsafe” slums, according to Chairman Abu Bakr Al Guindy, but its research teams were hampered by sewage-filled alleys, the mass of tiny rooms, and a hostile reception from residents.

Urgent need

Salil Shetty, secretary-general of Amnesty International, recently paid a visit to Manshiet Nasser slum where Abdel-Salam lives and works.

“Although Egypt may be in a transitional period, that cannot reduce the urgency of addressing the needs of those struggling to live in dignity and provide for their families,” Shetty said.

In 2008, a rockslide in Manshiet Nasser killed dozens of slum-dwellers and attracted the world’s attention to the pitiful conditions in Egypt’s shanty towns.

During Shetty's visit, residents recalled the deaths and explained that they felt powerless and neglected.

No papers

Amnesty estimates the number of slum residents in Egypt to be 12 million, but accurate figures are almost impossible to obtain because children like Abdel-Salam’s do not have birth certificates or anything to prove they are legally in and of the country.

“A large number of residents in areas like this one do not have any kind of papers,” Abdel-Salam said. “This means that to the state, these people are almost dead.”

The government campaign has so far collected the equivalent of US$17 million, one tenth of its target. It will first target slum-dwellers in the five governorates of Cairo, which account for 47 percent of the nation’s slums, according to Ali Al Faramawy, head of the state-run Slum Development Fund, then move onto Giza, Alexandria, and Minya in the south.

In a separate project, the Egyptian army has promised to build 6,000 housing units within the next six months to enable residents in slums like Manshiet Nasser to move out.

“When we talk about shanty towns, we talk about millions of people who have for years suffered extreme neglect,” said Hussein Gomaa, an independent housing expert. “The project to improve living and housing conditions in these slums will have far-reaching social, political, and economic effects.”

Copyright © IRIN 2011. All rights reserved. This material comes to you via IRIN, the humanitarian news and analysis service of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations or its Member States. The boundaries, names and designations used on maps on this site and links to external sites do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the UN.

India: Human misery of drug crossroads

Source: PANOS London

Human misery of drug crossroads

As told to Thingnam Anjulika Samom

Creative Commons

A popular joke among the people of Manipur is that A is for Arms, B for Bandhs (strikes), C for Curfew, and D for Drugs. This grim alphabet reflects the sad reality of the state. Tragically those that feel the impact most are women and children.

Manipur shares a porous border of almost 400km with Myanmar. Most of the arms and drugs, especially heroin, are smuggled into Manipur from Myanmar. Other abused drugs such as spasmo-proxyvon (SP) tablets are brought in from other parts of the country. These strong painkillers are usually prescribed for stomach cramps. In Manipur drug users mix the capsules with water and inject them. This produces a weak opium-like high lasting for a few minutes – but for much less money than heroin.

Generations have been wiped out in Manipur due to the abuse of heroin and SP. In fact, the high rate of HIV/AIDS in the state is mainly due to the transmission of the disease among intravenous drug-users (IDUs) who then pass it on to their sexual partners and then potentially to their children. As of January this year we have just over 38,000 people who live with HIV/AIDS, according to official figures. Roughly a quarter of them are women. Many other women, like me, struggle behind as widows of husbands who died due to HIV/AIDS.

In addition, lots of women are being used as couriers for drugs for petty amounts of money. There have been lots of cases where these women also became addicts. Many of the women who become addicts or who get infected with HIV through their spouses have been forced out of their homes. They are often forced to work as sex workers to earn their daily dose of drugs. Our society often looks with disdain at these women, but forgets that they too are victims of circumstances.

Would there be so many people abusing drugs if they were not abundantly and easily found on the streets of Manipur? Due to the ongoing armed conflict situation, Manipur must have one of the highest concentrations of state security forces in the country. There are so many checkpoints on the roads and so many policemen are recruited throughout the year. So how do these illegal drugs make their way into Manipur? How can we not suspect that there are many influential people, may be policemen or politicians, involved in the trade?

We might not have enough to prove this but the consequences of the illegal trade are quite visible. So many programmes and policies on HIV/AIDS have been framed and implemented by the government, but all these have failed to bring about perceptible signs of improvement. There is an apparent lack of political will in almost all issues in Manipur.

The state government formed the Manipur Legislative Forum on HIV/AIDS, comprising all Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs). Yet they failed to even evaluate how many people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHA) there are in their respective Assembly Constituencies or assess what their needs are.

We tried lobbying our own MLA to get whatever money was allotted for HIV/AIDS in his local area development fund used towards the nutrition, education and treatment of PLHA in his Assembly Constituency. But like the others, he also confined the activities to awareness programmes. There has been a lot of awareness programmes since the 1990s so I wish he had used the money in a new direction.

Aid Flotilla: British MPs support second Gaza flotilla

London, June 28, IRNA -- Several British MPs have sent messages of support for the second Gaza Freedom Flotilla seeking to break the Israeli illegal five year siege of what has been called the world's largest prison.

More than 10 parliamentarians, including former Labour shadow foreign secretary Sir Gerald Kaufman, have declared their backing for the international convoy, which is due to set sail this week, just over a year after Israel killed nine activists on the first flotilla in May 2010.

“The Israeli blockade of Gaza is illegal and deeply harmful to the Gaza Strip’s huge population. The Israeli stopping of ships approaching Gaza, in international waters, is piracy,” Kaufman said.

“The Israeli detention of people on such ships, and confiscation of their property is kidnapping and theft. I support all who seek peacefully to break this illegal blockade,” he said.

A number of Britons are joining the fleet of ships from Greece, Spain, Italy, France, Canada, the United States, Germany/Switzerland, Sweden, the Netherlands and Ireland carrying medical supplies and other essential equipment, although there is no designate boat from the UK.

To mark the launch, MPs are joining directors, writers, musicians and trade unions at a boat leaving festival on the Thames in London on Wednesday morning, which is due to pass parliament in a short voyage.

Parliamentarians and activists who witnessed the last year's attack by Israeli commanders in international waters are also due to participate in the ceremony.

The British Foreign Office advises Britons not to travel to Gaza, but in Ireland, which is sending a boat in the flotilla, Foreign Minister Eamon Gilmore has warned Israel against any repeat of last year's massacre.

“Israel must exercise all possible restraint and avoid any use of military force if attempting to uphold their naval blockade,” Gilmore said.

He reiterated that Israel's five year siege of Gaza was “unjust and counterproductive” warned against a repetition of last year's attack which he described as the “completely unacceptable and unjustified”.

OPT: Future of Two-State Solution, Arab Peace Initiative, Quartet Road Map Examined at Brussels Meeting

Speakers Look at Current Prospects For Middle East Peace from European Perspective

(Received from a UN Information Officer.)

BRUSSELS, 28 June — The viability of the two-State solution, the importance of the Arab Peace Initiative and the effectiveness of the Quartet’s Road Map in bringing about a just and lasting settlement of the Middle East conflict — along with Europe’s role in reaching that goal — were examined this afternoon as the United Nations International Meeting in Support of the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process held its first plenary session in Brussels.

Entitled “Peace or process: taking stock of European efforts to promote Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking”, the session followed the opening of the two-day Brussels meeting, convened by the Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People, which is looking at the role of Europe in advancing a two-State solution to the conflict.

Addressing this plenary session were Véronique De Keyser, Member of the European Union Parliament; Neve Gordon, Professor of Politics and Government at Ben-Gurion University in Beer-Sheva, Israel; Abdelaziz Aboughosh, Ambassador of Palestine to Malaysia, the Philippines and Brunei Darussalam; and Clare Short, former Member of the British Parliament.

Surveying the range of positions towards the peace process in Europe, Ms. DE KEYSER stressed that “ Europe speaking with one voice” did not exist. It was agreed, however, that peace negotiations and the realization of a Palestinian State were crucial. In her socialist group, it was thought that those two developments must progress in synergy. In most areas, however, a different range of opinions characterized the Council of Europe, the European Commission and the Parliament. The refusal to recognize Hamas under any circumstances as well as measures to curb settlement expansion were major points of contention. Even though broad and serious humanitarian concern had been the basis of action, the legal jargon contained in United Nations resolutions had been prevalent.

Broader consensus, she said, had been developing recently around the Goldstone Report, the flotilla incident and the development of a national unity government, for which dialogue with less extremist factions had been envisioned. However, consensus in those areas had been too fragile, in many cases, for the Parliament to take action. A new momentum could be sensed now due to the democratic aspirations in the region, which Europe wanted to support without creating a double standard by ignoring Palestinian aspirations. Other causes for that momentum included the successful building of Palestinian institutions and developments in Palestinian reconciliation.

She said it was clear that the Parliament would continue pushing for peace negotiations, with or without conditions. On the evolution of positions on the statehood issue, she noted that Germany, the United Kingdom and France had declared in February that peace and a Palestinian State were linked. Europe’s lack of a stance on Hamas was problematic, and it was hard to predict what it would do if the United States decided to impose sanctions on a government that included Hamas. In her opinion, recognition of the right of independence was a way of giving hope to people that had endured long-term occupation. In that context, she predicted that Europe would not give up its belief in equality and the need to avoid double standards in its promotion of the two-State solution.

Doubtful that the two-State solution was viable at all, Mr. GORDON said that the Palestinian appeal to the international community for recognition of statehood through the United Nations might be the last chance for salvaging that model, because of the demographics of inexorable settlement growth, which he said had been supported by the Israeli Government throughout the last 20 years of peace negotiations. If the bid for United Nations recognition failed, then a paradigm shift towards a one-State solution might very well take place, he suggested. In his thinking, there were two possible models of the one-State solution, with the first being similar to the situation that currently existed, which he labeled an apartheid situation that could not be sustained over time.

The second one-State solution, which Mr. Gordon saw as more sustainable, would also preserve existing borders, but would be a “democratic bi-national model”, based on an agreed-upon form of power sharing in a federal government led by Israeli Jews and Palestinians, with a liberal form of separation of powers. That model would have to address the minority’s collective rights and underscore the notion of “parity of esteem”, namely, the idea that each side respect the other’s identity and culture. It would perhaps include some form of internal territorial partition as well, with porous borders.

Mr. ABOUGHOSH, on the other hand, saw a substantive foundation for the two-State solution already laid by the Arab Peace Initiative, confirmed by Arab League summits from 2002 to 2008 and widely supported in the international community. He said the Initiative called for full Israeli withdrawal from all Arab territories occupied since June 1967 under the land-for-peace principle and Israel’s acceptance of an independent Palestinian State with East Jerusalem as its capital in return for its being recognized by 57 Arab and Muslim countries with full, normal diplomatic relations.

Describing support for the Initiative from much of the international community, including various European leaders, the Quartet as a whole, the Non-Aligned Movement and other groups — along with a positive reaction from United States President Barack Obama — he said that the Palestine Liberation Organization had exerted tireless efforts to garner support for it in its quest for a just and comprehensive peace in accordance with international legality. The Initiative required comparable commitment from the Israeli Government. However, the Israeli Government was still ignoring it or attacking it in the press. However, Arab support for peace remained clear, he said.

In another assessment of the prospects for a two-State solution, Ms. SHORT said that if taking stock of European support for peace-making efforts in the Middle East meant noticing “failure, failure, failure” — then so be it. Repeating actions that led to failure was a form of insanity, she commented, citing Albert Einstein. Surveying the cycles of negotiation since Madrid, including those that had produced the Road Map, and the various deadlines along the way, she said that after all that activity, all that had resulted was increased usurpation of Palestinian land, housing and rights.

European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton’s recent statements, she said, only continued the same failed process, showing that Europe was tolerating a fundamental breach of the international standards it had developed after the Second World War. Europe had leverage through its trade policy, which required adherence to international law and human rights and was a major destination for Israeli exports. That fact could be used effectively. If Europe failed to use such leverage, she commented, it was, in effect, subsidizing the occupation, and the two-State solution was effectively “dead in the water”.

If it was dead, she said she agreed with Mr. Gordon that a democratic one-State solution must be looked at carefully. All was not hopeless, however, she said, citing the Arab Spring, the peaceful protest movement against the separation wall in the West Bank and growing international divestment campaigns and other protests against Israel’s practices. She insisted that recognition of a State of Palestine in the United Nations must be supported by all those who supported international law. If Europe and the United States blocked that initiative, justice would win out eventually. “History moves on, and it will move on in this region,” she said.

In response to questions from members of civil society organizations, Ms. Short said that she was not necessarily in favour of the two-State solution; she had supported it because the Palestinian Authority had agreed to pursue it after making historic compromises. Mr. Gordon said that it was just a fact that there was one State and that the situation was unlikely to change. Both agreed that the two-State solution was clearly in the interest of Israel, because it was the only one that would allow it to remain a Jewish State.

Replying to other questions, Mr. Aboughosh said he would not speculate on actions to be taken if the appeal for recognition of a State of Palestine in the United Nations failed in September. He said that it was a right to be able to take the issue to the United Nations, so that right would be exercised. Members of non-governmental organizations then called for mobilization of civil society to support an urgent resolution of the situation.

The Permanent Observer of Palestine to the United Nations, Riyad Mansour, said that there was an intense debate among Palestinian leadership on steps to take to support the recognition bid, and added that one should not underestimate what Palestinians were prepared to do. He appreciated suggestions on one-State or two-State solutions, but the will of the people to end the occupation must be respected.

The United Nations International Meeting in Support of the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process will continue in Brussels with its second plenary meeting at 10 a.m. on Wednesday, 29 June.

For information media • not an official record

Nigeria: Nigerian Sect Targets Security Forces, Non-Muslim Civilians

Voice of America

Scott Stearns

Islamic militants in Nigeria belonging to the Boko Haram group are being blamed for a series of attacks in the city of Maiduguri including bombings on Sunday and Monday that killed at least 28 people.

Boko Haram began in 2004 as a gathering of fundamentalist, middle-class university students united behind the meaning of the group's name, which in the Hausa language means “Western education is sinful.”

“Boko Haram started as a very innocuous and seemingly harmless organization of people who acted more or less as devotees, as religious devotees who have taken religion so seriously as to segregate themselves, confine themselves to certain settlements far away from the mainstream society,” said Abubakar Umar Kari, a professor of sociology at the University of Abuja.

Boko Haram set as its goal the creation of a new country under Islamic law. It recognizes neither Nigeria's constitution nor the federal government in Abuja. That drew the attention of security forces, especially when more than 200 members of the group set up camp in Yobe State along the border with Niger.

Nigerian police say that group attacked a local police station and escaped with weapons. Boko Haram says they were harassed by police who assaulted unarmed militants.

Already facing growing unrest in the oil-rich Niger Delta, Professor Kari says the government of then-President Olusegun Obasanjo could not allow Boko Haram's threat to go unchecked, which only reinforced the group's militancy.

“Their decision to resort to violence, it started largely as a reaction to the spate of attacks that were being meted against them by the security," noted Kari. "And that is another major problem with Nigeria. Normally, those in authority think the best way to tackle or address a problem is through coercion.”

Boko Haram launched a coordinated uprising across much of the north in July 2009. That revolt was put down by Nigeria's military in a campaign that killed more than 800 people, including Boko Haram leader Mohammed Yusuf.

Since then, the group has focused on ambushing military convoys and political and religious leaders as well as bombing police and military posts.

Boko Haram bombed national police headquarters in Abuja earlier this month. In a telephone interview before the most recent attacks in Maiduguri, Boko Haram spokesman Usman Alzawahiri said there can be no reconciliation with people who want to destroy the movement.

Alzawahiri added that Boko Haram fighters have returned from training in Somalia and will drive the Nigerian government into exile in Ghana or Cameroon just as Islamic militants in Somalia drove the government into exile in Kenya.

President Goodluck Jonathan has repeatedly offered to open talks with the group. Appealing for calm, he says terrorism is a global threat, and Nigeria is no exception.

“No country is free," said Jonathan. "Nigeria is also having some ugly incidents relating to that. We have been meeting the security agencies on top of this. People should not be panicky at all.”

President Jonathan is a Christian from southern Nigeria who was elected in a vote that broke down along the country's regional and ethnic divide. Jonathan won most of the vote in the mainly-Christian south. His opponent, former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, won most of the vote in the mainly-Muslim north.

Sociology professor Kari says that makes Boko Haram particularly troubling for President Jonathan.

“His major challenge, even minus Boko Haram, was to try to reintegrate the country," added Kari. "But now in their activities and tactics and strategies, Boko Haram can easily sharpen or worsen this divide.”

By targeting non-Muslims in bombings of beer gardens in Bauchi and Maiduguri, Kari says Boko Haram increases the risk of faith-based reprisals in a country where Human Rights Watch says at least 800 people were killed in religious violence following last month's vote.

Pakistan: Orphans Of War - The Innocent Victims Of Pakistan's Swat Offensive

Photo: RFE/RL

RFE/RL Copyright (c) 2011. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.

Orphans Of War: The Innocent Victims Of Pakistan's Swat Offensive

June 28, 2011

By Shaheen Buneri

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WATCH: Children at the Khpal Kor Foundation orphanage in Pakistan's SWAT District, which has become a lifeline for hundreds of children orphaned or separated from their parents following a massive military operation in the region.

MINGORA, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan -- The worn-out burqa covering her from head to toe fails to conceal Rekhmina's sense of loss and uncertainty.

The mother of four has come to the Khpal Kor Foundation, an orphanage located in Swat District's largest city, Mingora, in the belief that it offers the best chance of keeping her children off the streets.

To gain admission for her three daughters and one son, however, she must answer the very question she has spent months trying to answer herself: "Where is your husband?"

Muhammad Ali, principal of the Khpal Kor Foundation, poses the question. The orphanage, supported by local philanthropists and organizations, has become a lifeline for hundreds of children orphaned or separated from their parents when the Pakistani government launched a massive military operation in Swat Valley in the spring of 2009.

The operation was intended to sweep militants loyal to Pakistani Taliban commander Mullah Fazlullah from the scenic but restive region of northwest Pakistan. But as Ali notes, there were many innocent victims.

"There has been a 15-20 percent increase in the number of orphans in Swat after the war," he says. And with this come fears that unless a way can be found to mend their lives, they face a future of crime, or worse, as militants.

No Father, No Future

"In the context of Pashtun society, real orphans are those who have lost their fathers," Muhammad Ali explains as we walk toward the main building of the orphanage.

In traditional Pashtun society, males are responsible for all of their family's expenses. When a male family member is lost, the social and economic status of the family is weakened.

As a result, many families are no longer able to cover the most basic expenses for books and clothes. And even if children are properly equipped, the destruction of hundreds of schools in Swat leaves them with no place to study.

Swat District, and the broader Malakand Region of which it is a part, was devastated by the 2009 operation. After the military declared victory within a few short months, 3 million displaced persons returned to see their former lives in ruins.

A survey conducted by the Khpal Kor Foundation in urban areas of Swat District alone revealed that 700 boys and girls, aged four to 12, had been left fatherless and at the mercy of a society shattered by conflict and humanitarian and natural crises.

Ali explains that his orphanage houses children orphaned when family members were killed by the Taliban, and those whose fathers and brothers were targeted by the military as Taliban militants.

The Khpal Kor Foundation provides 180 students with an education, food, and shelter. Of these, 37 lost fathers to combat action in Swat. The rest lost family members to bomb explosions, police violence, or even to sunstroke as they waited in line for hours for humanitarian aid.

Six-year-old Hamza tells how his father, a fruit seller who often plied his trade in Mingora, was killed by the Taliban.

"He was on his way home," Hamaz explains forlornly. "In the town of Dargai the Taliban intercepted the vehicle and shot him dead."

The Taliban ordered him to step out of the vehicle for inspection. He delayed, and they shot him. This was the account given to him by his mother.

Ten-year-old Shoib Zada hails from Khwazakhela, a village in Swat. His uncle was a Taliban commander well known by locals and security agencies for his militant activities.

As government troops entered the district, Shoib's uncle fled, but left his family vulnerable. When security forces conducted house to house searches, Shoib's father, a farmer who had serious differences with his brother and his militant activities, was arrested.

"Later on we were informed that my father had been killed by the military," Shoib says. He cries while recalling his father's death. But he quickly composes himself and says he would forgive the killers if it meant the fighting would end.

The Sword Cuts Both Ways

Every child at the orphanage is encouraged tell their stories. But opening their hearts is not easy, even with the help of two psychologists hired by the orphanage to provide support.

"They cry, faint, and are unable to concentrate on their studies," says psychologist Niaz Muhammad, 35, who has worked with the children for 1 1/2 years. "You can build houses and schools, but the wounds from the violence will take a long time to heal."

Muhammad says some children exhibit aggressive behavior and seek to avenge their loss.

He cites the example of a child whose father was killed by the Taliban right before his eyes.

The child, he says, exhibits great enthusiasm to learn military skills. In a very short time, Muhammad says, the boy became commander of the school assembly.

"He strikes his feet very forcefully on the ground during the parade to express his crushed emotions," the psychologist observes.

For the children who are accepted into Khpal Kor Foundation, or a handful of similar orphanages, there is at least a chance. Less so for hundreds of Swat's orphans of war who are forced to eke out an existence on the streets, scavenging through garbage for food or paper to sell.

Caught In The Crossfire

Rekhmina, the mother or four, is aware of the opportunity offered by the orphanage, and is intent on convincing Ali to admit her children. But first she must answer the question: "Where is your husband?"

She explains that before government troops moved in, she and her children fled Mingora, leaving her husband behind.

His job as a watchman for a government-run girls' school would have placed him at great risk. Even before the operation, schools were a popular target for Taliban militants.

Once the operation began, many civilians were caught up in the crossfire.

"I asked the military officials, and they say he is not in their custody," Rekhmina says. "My neighbors suspect he might have been killed in the conflict."

Life on their own has been difficult. She pleads to Ali that she and her children must share a single room, and depend on others to provide them with alms to pay for rent and other expenses.

"I am tired of searching for my husband," she says. "In the past two years I have heard nothing from him. He is dead to us."

"I just want my children to be educated," she concludes, in a wavering voice.

But Ali has to refuse. There is noting he can do without a death certificate.

Shaheen Buneri is a Prague-based correspondent for RFE/RL's Radio Mashaal. He recently concluded a month-long reporting trip to Pakistan under a fellowship with the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting.

Landmines: Angola - Over 15.000 square metres of land cleared

Government of Angola

Amboim – The National De-mining Institute (INAD) removed landmines in a 15.310-square metre of a field and 4.807-square metre in land reserve in Amboim district, coastal Kwanza Sul province.

The INAD team removed 29 antipersonnel mines, 30 grenades, 63 shells, one anti-tank mine, 3,510 ammunitions and 13 grenade detonators.

This was said to Angop Tuesday by the chief of the local de-mining department, Joaquim Pina.

Terrorism: Somalia - Killing of Fazul Abdullah Mohammed a blow to Al Shabaab

Source: ISS

Killing of Fazul Abdullah Mohammed in Somalia a blow to Al Shabaab

Andrews Atta-Asamoah & Roba Sharamo, Senior Researcher & Head of Programme, African Conflict Prevention Programme, ISS Nairobi Office

Since the death of Osama bin Laden on 2 May this year, Al Qaeda has lost two more important operatives – Ilyas Kashmiri in Pakistan and Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, who was killed on 7 June in Somalia. The killing of these three men have all been in circumstances that many believe are a just end for extremists who have, over the years, left bitter memories in the minds of many innocent people across the world.

Fazul, who was killed by Somali government forces, is known to have masterminded the 1998 bombings of the United States embassies in Kenya and Tanzania and was the head of the Al Qaeda cell in East Africa. He is also believed to have been behind the Paradise Hotel attacks in Mombasa and an attempted missile strike on an Israeli charter flight in 2002. Since the 1998 bombing, he has been on the run and has been using Somalia as a haven where he is also a senior member of the Al Shabaab leadership responsible for foreign fighters and volunteers. In 2008, he escaped narrowly from capture from a home in Malindi in Kenya just minutes before anti-terrorism police officers crashed through his door. At the time, he is reported to have sneaked into Kenya from his base in Somalia to receive medical care for a kidney condition.

Fazul operated under different identities and had about ten fake names and forged international passports. His fluency in several regional languages was critical to him. He is believed to have disguised himself as either being African, Arab or Asian. Even as head of foreign fighters and volunteers in Al Shabaab, it appears not all of them knew his identity. Trainees in Lower Juba knew him as ‘Abu-Abdirahman the Canadian’. At the time of his death in Somalia he is reported to have been travelling under the identity of ‘Daniel Robinson’ with a fake South African passport. Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces killed him after he lost his way and landed in a government-controlled security checkpoint. At the checkpoint, Mohammed Dhere a Kenyan extremist and Fazul’s driver, introduced his passenger who was then working on a laptop with an AK-47 on his laps as “ni wazee”, a Swahili phrase meaning “it’s the elders”. Upon realising they had ended up at the wrong checkpoint, Dhere tried to remove his pistol but the government forces opened fire leading to the death of East Africa’s, most notorious extremist.

Fazul’s death is obviously a big blow to the leadership of both Al Qaeda and Al Shabaab and to the myths about their abilities. It also opens the Al Qaeda cell in the region up to internal leadership wrangles as a result of the vacuum. Moreover, unconfirmed reports indicate that there are renewed internal tensions between indigenous and foreign commanders of Al-Shabaab exacerbated by the group’s recent loss of strategic districts in Mogadishu. The killing of Fazul might deepen these fault-lines. The regional cell of Al Qaeda is particularly the most affected because Fazul’s extensive experiences and contacts in the region have been lost and will take years to nurture. With the naming of Ayman al-Zawahiri as Al Qaeda’s new leader, it appears a replacement will certainly be named for the East African cell in the not too distant future. The group’s operations in the region will thus, no doubt, be slowed down, albeit temporarily. It is also going to have a huge impact on the relationship between Al Qaeda and its regional affiliates. This is principally because Fazul was instrumental in the network that existed between the international elements of Al Shabaab, in particular, and their networks outside the country.

Apart from the impact on the Al Shabaab’s network with outside elements of Al Qaeda, the Somali group will be impacted greatly because Fazul was a medium through which the Al Shabaab received some of its resources and operational direction, as well as moral support. Following his demise, these benefits to Al Shabaab will be hampered, at least for some time.

Importantly, the circumstances under which he made a wrong turn and ended up at the TFG-controlled checkpoint is still not clear. Leaving his base in Lower Juba and heading towards a frontline in Mogadishu with several mobile phones, medicine and cash of about US$41,000 may imply either that he was going to equip the frontline operatives with logistics or that Al Shabaab may be planning a major offensive requiring his tactical leadership and operational input.

It is, however, instructive that he was killed by government forces rather than forces of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). First, the shots at Fazul and his driver were clean enough to indicate that the training of the TFG forces by regional and international partners are making some impact. This is clearly an indication of the impact that well-trained TFG forces are capable of making and Somali soldiers’ honest declaration of the cash found on him is quite reassuring of force’s integrity and discipline. Secondly, any retaliatory attacks by Al Shabaab in response to Fazul’s death will largely be directed within Somalia rather than at the troop contributing countries of AMISOM. A renewal of offences in Somalia against the TFG forces by Al Shabaab is therefore likely. A regional retaliation is also likely by Al Qaeda, aimed at registering its presence and activity in the region, particularly by whoever replaces Fazul. This will require the beefing up of regional and international security operations and intelligence gathering in the aftermath of Fazul’s death.

The ease with which Fazul was killed vis-à-vis his ability to thrive and swiftly operate in East Africa over the years, point to the fact that he has been able to operate in the region more as a result of the abysmal nature of the region’s vulnerabilities than his extreme prowess and swiftness at his game. It also points to the comfortable nature by which his calibre of people operates in Al Shabaab-controlled areas in South and Central Somalia. It thus raises a lot of crucial questions about regional security and effectiveness of law enforcement and counter-terrorism operations, especially regarding citizen participation and contribution to law enforcement in the region. Despite been wanted in official circles, Fazul’s identity is not one ordinary East Africans knew. As such, the ordinary people of the region were not brought on board attempts to track him down. The same applies to numerous people on various wanted lists of criminals in the region and beyond.

The fight against crime and extremism appears to be elitist and has become the preserve of only law enforcement and counter-terrorism agencies. Such disconnect makes it easy for dangerous elements of his calibre to thrive among innocent and unnoticing members of the society. There might be the need for the media houses in particular to give regular highlights aimed at familiarising citizens with images of people on wanted lists to enable the public to be on the look out for their arrests. Most importantly, the move towards community policing in the region is one that requires a great deal of commitment from governments and private sector as well, if law enforcement is to be enhanced in the region. The emergence of Fazul, his operations and eventual demise is a stark reminder that the battle for the hearts and minds of people rages unabated. In East Africa particularly, where Al Shabaab is persistently recruiting young people, a more robust response to radicalisation is the only way forward.

Genocide: Romanian pogrom showed Nazis 'how to do mass murder'

Romania has marked the 70th anniversary of one of the worst pogroms of the Holocaust.

Up to 15,000 Jews in the city of Iasi - a third of the total - were murdered within the space of a few days in 1941.

Ceremonies have been held at Jewish cemeteries in the presence of a handful of survivors who were decorated as honorary citizens of the city.

Argentina: Argentina Receives Harsh Censure from Financial Action Task Force (FATF) after Failing to Achieve Progress in Anti-Corruption Efforts

SOURCE American Task Force Argentina

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has announced that Argentina will be placed on its notorious, official "Grey List" of nations that have failed to comply with international efforts to stem money laundering and financing of terrorism. The FATF was established by the G-7 nations in 1989 and remains the leading international institution combating corruption in global markets. This decision by the FATF is a stiff rebuke to Argentina, which over the course of an extended evaluative process was deemed to have failed to comply with 47 of 49 FATF security criteria. Argentina is the first G-20 nation to be placed on the Grey List since the FATF's founding. Several member governments – including the U.S. – argued that Argentina should receive the most severe sanction for its recalcitrance and be placed on the "Black List" along with Iran and North Korea.

"The expected decision by the FATF to put Argentina on the 'Grey List' shows a new resolve by the international community and the U.S. government to get tough with Argentina," said Robert Raben, Executive Director of American Task Force Argentina. "Many nations are no longer willing to give Argentina a pass for egregious behavior that is simply unbefitting a G-20 partner. Its defiant disregard for foreign investors, disdain for the U.S. judicial system, unwillingness to clean up criminality in its financial sector and refusal to stop activity that may lead it to become a center of terrorist finance activity, and now its membership on the 'Grey List,' all threaten to establish it as an outlaw nation."

"We know from experience that without intense pressure and scrutiny from the international community, Argentina will continue to act irresponsibly. After years of promising that it would clean up its judicial system and enforce the rule of law, the FATF censure demonstrates that Argentina's claims of reform are little more than platitudes," said Raben. "ATFA has repeatedly warned that money laundering continues to be rife in Argentina and that the country poses a serious risk of becoming a hub for the financing of narco-trafficking and terrorism in the Western Hemisphere, threatening the security of the United States and the international community. Unfortunately, these warnings were validated today."

In October, FATF issued a mutual evaluation highly critical of Argentina's anti-money laundering and terrorist financing systems -- the most damning evaluation of a member country since the FATF was established in 1989. In November, the FATF issued an interim assessment, indicating that Argentina remained dangerously short of implementing systemic reforms. In December, an international delegation of inspectors visited Argentina to conduct an extensive cross-agency review.

"Argentina demonstrated the same lack of seriousness in negotiations this year with the Paris Club," said Raben. "After public avowals that it would satisfy its $9 billion in debts to the Club, Argentina refused to honestly broker an agreement, first refusing to submit to a required IMF review, then demanding a protracted payment period and finally bringing the process to a grinding halt. To be taken seriously as a country, Argentina must function within the established norms of international finance. Empty promises, window dressing reforms and haphazard responses are simply unacceptable."

Sudan: Framework Agreement Reached for Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile Sudan

SOURCE Embassy of the Republic of the Sudan

A framework agreement between the Government of Sudan and Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLMN) has today been reached with regards to Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile State, the former having, of late, been the scene of militia-provoked insecurity. Per the terms of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), these forces were supposed to have disbanded or integrated into the Sudan Armed Forces, instead they maintained status and continued to jeopardize the security in the area. Calls from the government urging these groups to abide by the agreement fell on deaf ears and when the National army entered the region to offer a semblance of protection to the civilians, it was attacked by the militias, a provocation that led to the current unrest in the area.

Today's agreement, in its "Security Arrangements" provisions, reemphasizes the CPA's call to have all militia groups in the regions be integrated into Sudan's National Armed forces, other security institutions, and the civil service or DDR (demobilization, disarmament, Reintegration). A Joint Security Committee is promptly to be formed so to immediately work on this agenda as well as on other security arrangements, including the cessation of hostilities in Southern Kordofan and the facilitation of humanitarian access for those in need.

Also to be formed is a Joint Political Committee to discuss and resolve issues of governance in Southern Kordofan. The body is to ensure that the remaining aspects of the CPA relevant to the two areas are successfully implemented and that a political partnership and governance arrangements for Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan are established. The parties have also agreed to form a committee that will look into an inclusive constitutional review process, discuss relations between the center and the peripheries, and map out a course for establishing good relations with neighboring countries with particular emphasis on Southern Sudan. Despite that credible elections were held in the region that decidedly empowers the government, the latter is going through this process for the sake of peace and security for its people. This framework agreement is a significant milestone that deserves the full attention of the concerned members of the regional and international community who must ensure the good faith cooperation of the militias and party in order to reach a final resolution to the outstanding issues.

Israel: The Israeli uprising

The Israeli uprising

by Naava Mashiah 28 June 2011

Geneva - “What Israel now needs is an uprising.” This is the comment I heard on the side-lines of the discussions at a conference called “Enriching the Economic Future of the Middle East VI” that took place in mid-May in Qatar.

Over 600 participants from 80 counties gathered to discuss the implications of the recent Arab uprising and the future economic prosperity of the Middle East and North Africa. Although talk of an Israeli uprising was not the main theme that emerged from the two-day conference, it had the ears of the handful of Israelis in attendance ringing.

When talking about an “uprising”, the speakers were not calling on Israel to transition to a democracy, since Israel is already considered a democracy by most of its citizens. The comments were referring, rather, to the absence of an Israeli voice of peace, or a perceived Israeli indifference towards solving the conflict.

I feel a responsibility as an Israeli to correct this skewed impression. I wanted to tell the participants – many of whom are leading political and business figures in the Arab world – about the Israelis who are working hard to make peace a reality and are now gaining momentum. Their actions may not yet constitute an uprising, but their emergence is a symptom of the growing concern amongst left-wing but also left-of-centre people across Israel over the absence of a government-led peace process.

A major initiative that I tell people about is the Israeli Peace Initiative (IPI), established under the leadership of Koby Huberman, a leader in the Israeli high-tech industry and a civil society entrepreneur; Yaakov Perry, former head of Israel’s General Security Services; and Yuval Rabin, son of the late Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. The IPI’s mission is to urge the government to accept the extraordinary Arab Peace Initiative from 2002 – which offers an end to the conflict and full normalisation in exchange for Israel’s complete withdrawal from the Occupied Territories – as a basis for regional negotiations.

It may be only a civil movement at this time, comprised of prominent citizens and business leaders. However, civil movements have a record of influencing public opinion and generating pressure which governments cannot then ignore. The members of the IPI are also keenly aware of the “Economic Intifada” by the Palestinian community to pressure international businesses to withdraw from economic cooperation with Israel, and are warning that the lack of a political process could prove destructive for the currently thriving Israeli economy.

The seeds of the uprising in Israel may be fomenting now in meeting halls and private salons, and are also being given some attention in the media. It is a growing demand for the government to save Israel from a future of endless warfare and to propose a two-state solution along the 1967 borders.

I have been talking about the IPI in public forums and in private discussions with my Arab colleagues. There is a thirst to know about these initiatives and we need to help disseminate the message.

Straddling the fence between the Arab world and Israeli society, I repeatedly encounter the need to dispel the ignorance which each side displays about the other. One recent impromptu encounter drove this home with particular force.

In a Sheraton Hotel lobby in Doha, a group of young Israeli participants congratulated young Egyptian revolutionaries for their courage. The Egyptians were surprised, since they did not know that there are Israelis who applaud the revolution. The exchange between these young people continues via Facebook and hopefully will expand to include other Israelis and Egyptians.

There is an urgent need to create channels of communication between “ordinary” Israelis and Arabs, not just governments. It is not difficult to imagine how perceptions in the Arab world would shift toward Israelis if many more knew about exciting initiatives like the IPI. At the same time, Israeli attitudes towards their Arab neighbours would also change if they knew about the real desire pulsing through the Arab world to live according to democratic values and cultivate economic and individual freedoms. Yes, there will always be extreme elements amongst us. However, we should harness the moderate voices on both sides and bridge these streams of goodwill.

Knowing that the other side is not a monolithic society but is rather comprised of many different groups with competing values and priorities, including large segments of society who actually want to live in peace with each other, could begin to shape a Middle East which is a healthier neighbourhood for all its inhabitants.

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* Naava Mashiah is CEO of M.E. Links, Senior Consultant at ISHRA and Editor of MEDABIZ economic news. Sherif El Diwany contributed to this article. This article was written for the Common Ground News Service (CGNews). Source: Common Ground News Service (CGNews), 28 June 2011, www.commongroundnews.org Copyright permission is granted for publication.

Organized Crime: The Chicago Mafia Down But Not Out

FBI

A Roman Catholic priest and former prison chaplain who ministered to Chicago mob boss Frank Calabrese, Sr., was indicted earlier this month for illegally passing jailhouse messages from Calabrese and plotting with his associates on the outside—a sobering reminder of how deeply organized crime can reach into the community, even from behind bars.

“Members of the mob will go to almost any lengths to carry out their criminal activity,” said Special Agent Ted McNamara, a veteran investigator who supervises the La Cosa Nostra (LCN) organized crime squad in our Chicago Field Office.

Calabrese, Sr., was sentenced to life in prison in 2009 for his role in 18 gangland slayings in the Chicago area dating back to 1970. His arrest—along with 13 others—was part of one of the most successful organized crime cases in FBI history, an eight-year investigation called Operation Family Secrets.

Because of the Family Secrets case—in which Calabrese’s son testified against him—“the Chicago mob does not have the power and influence it once had,” McNamara said. “But the mob still operates, and its members still represent a potentially serious criminal threat.”

Unlike New York’s infamous Five Families, the Chicago mob consists of only one family, often referred to as the “Outfit.” It is organized under a variety of crews that engage in various criminal activities. A portion of the crews’ illegal gains goes to the Outfit’s top bosses.

“New York gets most of the attention regarding LCN,” McNamara said, “but historically, going back to the days of Al Capone, Chicago LCN has always been a player, particularly in places like Las Vegas.”

Unlike their New York counterparts, the Outfit has traditionally stayed away from drug trafficking, preferring instead crimes such as loan-sharking and online gambling operations, and capitalizing on other profitable vices. One of the reasons it is so difficult to completely stamp out mob activity, McNamara said, is that over time the crews have insinuated themselves into unions and legitimate businesses.

“Typically they get into running restaurants and other legal businesses that they can use to hide money gained from their illicit activities,” McNamara explained. “Over the years the Outfit has learned that killing people brings too much heat from law enforcement. Today they might not even beat up a businessman who doesn’t pay back a debt,” he added. Instead, they take a piece of his business, and then, over time, exercise more and more control over the company.

The Family Secrets case, which began in 1999 and resulted in the indictment of 14 subjects in 2005 for racketeering and murder, dealt a crushing blow to the Chicago mob. “Our goal now,” McNamara said, “is to keep them from gaining strength again. We’ve got them down and we’ve got to keep them down.”

He noted that some of the mobsters currently in jail as a result of numerous prosecutions will be getting out in the next few years, and they will be under pressure to start making money again for the Outfit’s top bosses.

“As long as there is money to be made from criminal activity,” McNamara said, “these guys will never stop. So we need to continue to be vigilant and take the long view. The work we do on the LCN squad requires a lot of patience.”

Resources:
- Indicted chaplain press release
- Family Secrets article

Africa: 10 million facing severe food crisis amid worsening drought in Horn of Africa

Millions of people are being pushed closer to destitution by factors beyond their control in the Horn of Africa

UN - An estimated 10 million people across the Horn of Africa are facing a severe food crisis following a prolonged drought in the region, with child malnutrition rates in some areas twice the emergency threshold amid high food prices that have left families desperate, the United Nations reported today.

In some areas of Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia and Uganda, drought conditions are the worst in 60 years, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said in an update.

Almost half the of children arriving in refugees camps in Ethiopia from southern Somalia are malnourished, while 11 districts in Kenya have reported malnutrition rates above the 15 per cent emergency threshold. Supplementary and therapeutic feeding programmes are struggling to keep pace with the rising needs, according to OCHA.

Drought-related displacement and refugee flows are on the rise, with an average of 15,000 Somalis arriving in Kenya and Ethiopia every month this year seeking assistance.

“While conflict has been a fact of life for them for years, it is the drought that has taken them to breaking point. Many have walked for days, are exhausted, in poor health, desperate for food and water, and arriving in a worse condition than usual,” according to the OCHA update on the drought situation in the region.

The influx of Somalis into refugee camps in the Dadaab area of Kenya’s North-Eastern province – the largest refugee settlement in the world – has led to worsening overcrowding amid limited resources.

The drought has forced children out of school as both human and livestock diseases spread. Competition for the meagre resources is causing tensions among communities.

The price of grain in drought-affected areas of Kenya is 30 to 80 per cent more than the five-year average, according to OCHA, while in Ethiopia, the consumer price index for food increased by almost 41 per cent last month. Further food price hikes area expected in Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Somalia, but could ease after the next harvests expected later this year.

OCHA called for the scaling up of the emergency response in all affected areas, urging governments, donors and relief agencies step up efforts to prevent further deterioration.

Further funding is also required to enable humanitarian agencies to provide the necessary assistance. UN agencies and the partners this year requested $529 million for Somalia, but only 50 per cent of that amount has been received.

In Kenya, where $525 million is required, about 54 per cent of that money has been obtained so far. The appeal for Djibouti is for $39 million, but only 30 per cent has been received.

India-Pakistan: India and Pakistan Strive for Confidence Building

Nirupama Rao and Salman Bashir, the foreign secretaries of India and Pakistan. | Credit: www.hotpaknews.com

By Shastri Ramachandaran*

Courtesy IDN-InDepth NewsAnalysis

NEW DELHI (IDN) – The arch rivals India and Pakistan have found a mantra allowing both nations to progress in terms of friendly and nuclear confidence building measures and stabilise bilateral relations.

Though the June 23-24 round of talks between Nirupama Rao and Salman Bashir, the foreign secretaries of India and Pakistan respectively, did not grab all the headlines, it was notable in that the former single-minded approach to discuss terrorism was modified. This helped focus on the progress achieved by both sides in getting on with the agenda.

Consequently, a noteworthy achievement of the meeting in Islamabad between Rao and Bashir was to stabilise confidence-building measures (CBMs) on all the three tracks – peace and security, Jammu and Kashmir, and friendly exchanges. Most particularly, they concentrated on measures to minimise the nuclear threat and reviewed the existing situation.

This cleared the decks for expert-level groups of the two countries to consider further nuclear confidence-building measure before their foreign ministers meet in July.

Nuclear confidence-building measures appear to be remote achievements, and may not create the kind of buzz that people-to-people initiatives can give rise to. Yet, the importance of these cannot be overstated, especially at a time when the danger of Pakistan's nuclear weapons falling into the wrong hands is more real than at any time before.

NUCLEAR BREAKDOWN

Today, threat of a nuclear breakdown in Pakistan – a global disaster scenario intensified after the jihadi attack on Pakistani's naval facilities in Mehran – will affect India the most. It confirmed that the country's armed forces have been infiltrated by terrorists and their accomplices; that jihadis are embedded in sensitive establishments of the army; and, that the presence of U.S. and Chinese personnel does not intimidate the nexus between jihadis and their partners in uniform.

Worse could yet come, such as the operationalisation of the Islamist terror network in the Pakistani armed forces that could lead to the breakdown of the command-and-control structure of a military facility in the hands of non-state actors.

Alongside this alarming scenario is the existence of short-range missiles used as artillery with conventional warheads under the charge of local battlefield commanders in both India and Pakistan. Such improvised artillery can undermine deterrence at lower levels.

Unlike nuclear weapons systems, whose use must be pre-authorised, the short-range missiles can be used as battlefield weapons under the orders of inexperienced field commanders, which carries the danger of accidental and inappropriate deployment. In the case of Pakistan, the jihadi links of officers have increased fears of a mischievous use of these missiles.

It is against this backdrop that the latest nuclear confidence-building measures have to be viewed as a stabilising force for enhanced security, and safety of nuclear facilities. Former Foreign Secretary Lalit Mansingh, who has been pushing for prioritising the nuclear dialogue, considers these measures to be the most purposeful result of the recent talks. "Nuclear confidence-building has been the centrepiece of India-Pakistan Track II processes, and are an issue on which both sides have progressed remarkably well," says Mansingh.

Even so, India had to be "extremely cautious" about pursuing these goals. Post-Abbottabad, it is not only anti-American sentiments that run deep in Pakistan: India, to many Pakistanis, is still perceived to be a greater threat to Pakistan than Al Qaeda or the Taliban, clouding the atmosphere for the civilian government's talks with India. In the circumstances, Indian postures, language and tone assume greater importance than the content at issue.

On balance, the civilian government in Islamabad has acquitted itself extremely well and given New Delhi the satisfaction of plain-speaking, consolidating the gains since the February talks in Thimpu between the home, defence and commerce secretaries, and the cricket match meeting between the two prime ministers that followed in Mohali in March. India and Pakistan seem to be moving forward in areas which promise real progress "without being held hostage to India’s core issue of terrorism or Pakistan's core concern of Kashmir. This is no mean achievement," notes Mansingh.

The talks were held in a pleasant atmosphere and went off well, a marked improvement for bilateral relations. Fresh ideas for further confidence-building measures were proposed such as the removal of "unacceptable visa restrictions" like single-entry, single-city-only permits, can go a long way in transforming people-to-people relations favourably.

In addition to the visa regime, the changes proposed over the meeting include: the agreement to prevent 'situations' at sea such as the recent “brush” between the warships of India and Pakistan in the Gulf of Aden, more cross-Line Of Control exchanges, a greater frequency of Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus services, a new Kargil-Skardu bus service, increasing trading days from two to four per week and trading posts – there are currently only two,

Chakan-da-Bagh in the Poonch district of Jammu, and Salamabad in the Baramulla district of the Kashmir valley – and more points of people-to-people and institutional interactions, are all good signs.

Thankfully, Rao did not focus single-mindedly on terrorism – it would only have blocked progress on other tracks. This realisation, perhaps, restrained Bashir from also pressing Pakistan’s predictable obstructive line on Kashmir.

If these talks signify a resolve not to let the problem of "core issues" preclude New Delhi and Islamabad from proceeding with achievable outcomes on other diplomatic tracks, then surely history will show that this June meeting may the turning point in the Subcontinent’s geopolitics.

*Shastri Ramachandaran is a veteran journalist specializing in foreign affairs and geopolitics. This analysis first appeared on http://www.gatewayhouse.in – website of Indian Council on Global Relations.