Photo: AU UN IST/David Mutua. Traditional dancers celebrate the launch of the Interim Juba Administration ceremony on 20th January 2014.
Source: IRIN
NAIROBI, 5 February 2014 (IRIN) - On paper, federalism appears to be
central to today’s Somalia. “Federal Republic” is part of its official
name. It is run by a “federal national government”. “Federal, sovereign
and democratic” are the country’s defining characteristics, according to
Article 1 of the 2012 provisional constitution, a document in which the
word “federal” appears 710 times.
But in the wake of more than two decades of civil war and state
collapse, Somalis disagree about whether federalism is a recipe for
sustainable peace - and even whether such a system is practicable.
This briefing examines the issues.
What does federalism mean in Somalia?
Federalism is an ambiguous notion, involving relationships between
central and peripheral power structures that vary widely from country to
country.
In Somalia, the constitution outlines the connections between the
central government and future “federal member states,” but the precise
roles and responsibilities of each level of government are not
specified.
Article 54 states: “The allocation of powers and resources shall be
negotiated and agreed upon by the Federal Government and the Federal
Member States” pending their creation, except in the areas of foreign
affairs, national defense, citizenship and immigration, and monetary
policy, which are all under the purview of the central government, based
in the capital, Mogadishu.
The federal member states will be represented in parliament through the
Federal State’s upper house of parliament, which has yet to be created.
“My own feeling is that the nature of Somali federalism remains far from
agreed,” Michael Walls, senior lecturer at University College London
and a leading expert on Somalia, told IRIN by email.
Is federalism new in Somalia?
“Somalia has tried many systems of governance since its independence,”
Abdulkadir Suleiman Mohamed, a writer and political analyst, told IRIN.
After independence, the country followed the British model of a
parliamentary system, until the 1969 coup d’état, when the military
government installed a “scientifically Socialist” state.
Since 2004, the country has moved toward a federal system, not because
it is inherently better, Mohamed said, but because, “Somali people don’t
trust each other.”
“Resource-sharing, power¬-sharing, political representation - all have
been abused by certain people in the higher ranks of the government.
Welfare services have never been delivered. Local constituents never
received their share of national resources. So federalism was proposed a
way forward in Somali politics,” he said.
Abdi Aynte, director of the Heritage Institute for Policy Studies
(HIPS), agreed that Somalia has come to see federalism as a viable
solution to restoring peace. “Due to the prolonged civil war and the
resulting trust deficit, Somalis are yearning for local control of their
politics. Decentralization, or any other form of federalism, is the
answer to their quest,” he told IRIN by email.
“Federalism will disperse power among the states, and will thus reduce
the concentration of power on central hands. It is the best form
administration we can implement today in Somalia,” Mohamed Nurani Bakar,
a member of parliament, told IRIN. The “unitary system of governance
has brought us a lot of problems that are still with us today,” he said.
Who creates the federal member states?
The process of creating most federal states has been fraught with
delays, contestation and confusion. Under the provisional constitution,
all federal states must be built from among the 18 regions that existed
prior to the civil war. “Two or more regions may merge to form a Federal
Member State,” according to the constitution.
But an independent boundaries and federation commission, responsible for
determining the number and boundaries of federal states, has yet to be
formed by parliament’s lower house, leaving regions unsure of their
legal status under the provisional constitution.
The commission was meant to be appointed 60 days after the new Council
of Ministers was formed following the passage of the draft constitution
in 2012, but that never happened.
“The creation of Federal Member States proved to be a very controversial
issue during the constitutional conferences leading to this Draft
Provisional Constitution,” noted
a guidebook created by the UN Political Office for Somalia. For this
reason, the constitution specified that the process of deciding federal
member states will be carried out by the independent commission
comprising representatives from all of Somalia and international
experts.
Officially, no federal member states exist yet, and the government has
until elections in 2016 to create them. It is widely believed that
Puntland is the closest to achieving federal state status, and could be a
model for other states. Jubaland and Galmudug also have state-building
efforts underway, although there is a lot of in-fighting at the local
level. Jubaland has two rival talks going on while Galmudug has three or
four.
What’s the importance of Puntland?
Puntland has described itself as a semi-autonomous entity since 1998
with varying relations with Mogadishu. A recent presidential election,
won by Abdiweli Gaas, seems to have put an end to a period of animosity.
Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud reacted in a statement: “I
extend my personal congratulations to Abdiweli Mohammed Ali Gaas and I
look forward to working closely with him as the government continues to
build a federal Somalia.
“Puntland is a model for the rest of the country and what happens there matters very much.”
Gaas’s predecessor, Abdirahman Mohamed Faroole, “used the
conflict/tension with Mogadishu to shore up his domestic - i.e.,
Puntland - support base, whereas Abdiweli Gaas draws his strongest
support from international actors and many in Mogadishu,” said Walls.
“To that extent, I would expect the relationship between Puntland and
Mogadishu to improve under Abdiweli’s presidency, and he did underline
his desire to see such an improvement in his inauguration speech.”
“I do not think that a strongly centralized federal system is likely to
be accepted by most Somalis,” he said, adding: “Puntland is therefore
very important as an expression of what a loosely federated state might
look like.”
What is happening in Jubaland?
There are two separate processes taking place in Jubaland. One is the
Intergovernmental Authority on Development-brokered talks between a
delegation led by the Ras Kamboni movement (a paramilitary group opposed
to Al-Shabab) leader Ahmad Madobe, and the SFG. In August, they signed
an agreement in Addis Ababa, creating a Juba Interim Administration led by Madobe that will be in place for two years.
The talks say that during this time, “subject to the constitutional
process, a permanent Federal Member State will be established.” The
crucial port of Kismayo and the airport will be managed by the national
government during this time.
The formation of Jubaland in southern Somalia was initially met with opposition from Mogadishu, which accused a conference of stakeholders in February 2013 of being unconstitutional
because it was “carried out without reference to the federal
government.” Politicians in the Juba and Gedo regions, areas within the
proposed borders, also protested that the Jubaland leadership would not
be representative of all of the clans living in the region.
A separate bid
to join regions in Jubaland is also progressing. The Baidoa conference
is attempting to join together Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabell,
Bay, Bakool and Gedo. The conference has been ongoing for over a year,
with some support from the federal government, despite the SFG having
signed the Addis Agreement.
Tensions are running high between the rival state formation talks. Last week, reports
emerged that troops from the African Union Mission in Somalia had
attempted to take over the conference hall where the Baidoa conference
was taking place, to stop the meeting.
Nicholas Kay, the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for
Somalia, said that it was important that stakeholders continue to meet
in Baidoa, noting
that “nobody should risk taking steps that spoil
peace-and-state-building processes.” He also asked that “all parties
remain calm, committed to dialogue and support reconciliation efforts.”
Jubaland will have significant regional importance - the Kenyan
government would view it as a vital buffer zone between Somalia and
northern Kenya, offering protection against Al-Shabab. Ethiopia would
also see it as a vital shield to its territory, provided Jubaland’s
leadership was not sympathetic to the Ethiopian rebel group Ogaden
National Liberation Front.
What are some of the other challenges facing federalism?
Civic education, distribution of resources between state and national
governments, and the status of Mogadishu are also major challenges.
Aynte of HIPS recommends the creation of a body responsible for national
civic education on federalism. Most people are not aware how diverse
federalism is or the options available for decentralization. There also
needs to be national dialogue on the role of national and local
authorities in controlling revenues from natural resources, he believes.
“One area where there is real potential for revenue, the exploitation of
natural resources, has been postponed to an unspecified time due to the
controversy it has already raised between Puntland and the TFG
[Transitional Federal Government - the former name for the SFG],” said
Issa Mohamud Farah, director general of the Puntland Petroleum Minerals
Agency. “In a country where agriculture is marginal, manufacturing is
non-existent and the service sector is limited, the potential importance
of revenue from petroleum and mineral resources is not to be
underestimated.”
This is likely to be an area of conflict between the federal states and
central government, which would want greater control of oil revenues,
Farah believes.
Somalia President Mohamud also acknowledged that this is a major
difficulty. “We don’t have resource-sharing, we don’t have
revenue-sharing, we don’t have many, many more things to share,” he said
at an event at London’s Chatham House in February 2013. “If we do not
put those tools and instruments in place then federalism will create
more problems.”
Third, the issue of the status of Mogadishu has yet to be discussed. It
could occupy the place of a special city outside of the federal states
system, like Washington, DC, or Canberra. Analysts believe that this
debate will be likely to come to the fore once federal boundaries have
been negotiated and delineated.
“In a post-conflict environment, the process of state-formation normally
leads to conflict,” Aynte noted, indicating that to expect the system
to work immediately would be naïve. “Federalism will continue to be a
source of both harmony and contestation. And that’s to be expected. In
the interim, it’s going to be difficult, but eventually it will work
out.”
Are there any opponents to federalism?
Yes, some. Opponents of the federal project worry that it could lead to fragmentation and clan violence.
“Federalism is a destructive force for Somalia, and it will continue to
remain one whose woes will haunt Somalia,” Abdulkadir Sheikh Ismail,
former chairman of the parliamentary committee on constitutional
affairs, told IRIN. If “regional state interests take prominence over
the national interest, the common interest is lost as a result, and that
could set a dangerous precedent,” he added.
Mohamed Hassan Haad, a well-known traditional elder, is also skeptical.
“Somalis do not understand what federalism is. It does not serve the
interest of Somali people and will remain an intractable problem in the
long run. It is going to set one clan against the other,” he told IRIN.
“Somalis have been fighting over clan and religious issues for two
decades, and federalism is nothing but a new source or cycle of conflict
over land and ownership.”
Asked about what he thought of federalism, 23-year-old Ayuub Suleiman
Jama, who grew up experiencing years of clan clashes and religious
fanaticism, responded without hesitation. “Division,” he said.
“The establishment of a federalism of the clan, rather than a regional one” is a serious risk, according to
Marco Zoppi, a freelance political analyst. “The current distribution
of the clan already lends itself to a phenomenon of this kind.”
Most people in Somalia, however, recognize that there has to be some
form of power-sharing, and that is best done through a form of
federalism. But Farah warned, “Without a strong commitment from the
federal government, federalism will not flourish in Somalia.”