Photo: Maghrebia/Flickr. Mali’s long-term stability requires broad political and military reforms, analysts say
Source: IRIN
DAKAR, 12 March 2013 (IRIN) - As humanitarian agencies grapple with a
deepening displacement and food security crisis in Mali, analysts point
to the need for deep-seated reforms in the government and army if
longer-term stability and development is to be attained.
Since the beginning of the conflict in early 2012, an estimated 431,000
(260,665 IDPs and 170,313 refugees) have been displaced and 4.3 million
people are in need of humanitarian assistance, according to the UN
Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).
The conflict has exacerbated food insecurity in northern Mali and placed
huge strain on host communities’ scarce resources in central and
southern regions. Ethnic tensions remain high and there are disturbing
reports of retaliatory violence and killings, it says.
According to a recent UN assessment of priority needs,
“the dynamics of Mali’s crisis have changed dramatically in the
security, political and humanitarian fronts [since January 2013.] To a
certain extent, the context has become more complex and less readable
and predictable than before. Uncertainties remain on the political front
and one cannot exclude the emergence of new tensions.”
The humanitarian situation is intertwined with a political crisis the
root causes of which, according to Gilles Yabi, the International Crisis
Group (ICG) think tank director for West Africa, “Malian elites do not
seem ready to confront collectively. They should be able to agree on a
minimum [criteria to restore governance] and right now the conditions
for such a debate are not met.”
Many Malians complain about a lack of development, despite considerable
Western aid. Widespread perceptions of high-level corruption contributed
to the enthusiasm with which Capt Amadou Sanogo was welcomed
immediately after his 22 March 2012 coup.
“The real question is: Are Malians going to rebuild their governance
system or will they narrow their aim to reviving the old system? To be
honest, we don't really feel that there is a spirit for change,” said a
European diplomat who preferred anonymity.
“The truth is that interim president Dioncounda Traoré does not hold all
the power. Capt Sanogo and his men are still the law in Bamako. There
are still two captains in the Mali ship,” said a US diplomat also on
condition of anonymity.
Meanwhile, some believe a peaceful transition is possible, at least in
the short term: “There are still serious political and security
challenges, but the transition period should hold until the election, if
not in July, at least within a reasonable time frame,” said Yabi.
However, Sanogo and other loyal hardliners may be loath to completely
and permanently relinquish politics, argued a French diplomat who spoke
to IRIN on condition of anonymity. “There is the risk posed by the
radicals in Sanogo's entourage, though he seems to be controlling them.
Then there is the risk that he will try to stay forever in the political
arena - for example by endorsing a presidential candidate.”
Elections
Mali’s current government is unelected and was established following
pressure by regional organizations and Western governments after the
coup. Its authority is limited and its backers are keen on a government
with broader and stronger legitimacy. Under a roadmap to end the
transition, the interim authorities plan to hold elections in July.
However, there are doubts whether an electoral list can be drawn up,
voting cards issued and campaigns conducted in time to render the poll
date viable and the polls credible. Popular participation in the
elections is also doubtful, say some observers, especially in the north
which was occupied for nine months by Islamist militants.
“It’s already March and there is no campaign. We still don't know who
will be running. Many of the voter lists were destroyed in northern Mali
but also in parts of the south. The question of how northerners will
participate has not been answered either,” said Peter Tinti, a
Mali-based freelance journalist.
“On top of that, elections are expensive. It is going to take the
commitment of the international community to give the necessary funds to
conduct a free and fair election in a country where there are several
crises - so the timeframe depends largely on what resources the
international community is willing to commit to carry out an election
and the extent to which Malians themselves make it a priority.”
Tinti said Malians are apathetic about elections despite complaining of
difficulties. The people believe that new leaders will not be different
from previous ones whom they blame for failing them, he said.
“Elections should be held as soon as possible, but not under any
conditions,” said Yabi. “For these elections to be meaningful there is a
need to convince the population that they will be part of a process to
get out of the current crisis. In a country where turnout has always
been quite low compared to others in the region, conditions must be made
so that people would want to go to vote.”
But even with a greater turnout, elections may not bring a much needed
renewal of the political elite. “Competition will be most likely between
a few figures of the Malian political scene who have been around for
the past 20 years, so there is not much change to hope for,” said Alexis
Roy, a researcher who wrote a PhD thesis on Malian society.
Reconciliation
The interim government recently announced that a Reconciliation and
Dialogue Commission (CDR) will be set up soon to initiate dialogue among
Malians, identify political and social groups to be taken on board, and
tackle cases of rights violations across the country.
“The problem with such a commission or conferences is that they can be
used to say anything. Will it be used in a constructive manner or just
to say they have done it - it is not clear yet,” said a European
diplomat who preferred anonymity.
“Another issue with these types of bodies is that it is never clear if
people who have been appointed to represent certain groups really
represent them,” said Tinti.
Restoring some degree of national unity is a key goal of reconciliation,
but there are obstacles: The Tuaregs want more autonomy, and
nationalist sentiment in the south may hinder reconciliation given that
many southerners see northerners as foreigners.
“Public opinion in Bamako is not ready for dialogue. When you say
dialogue with the North, they hear impunity and reward for criminals who
have taken up arms,” said Roy.
Military reforms
The Malian army was routed by a Tuareg onslaught in early 2012.
Subsequently Islamist and Al Qaeda-linked groups usurped the Tuaregs and
occupied swathes of territory in the north.
“The whole of the security sector requires a deep-rooted reform that
will take years to complete. It has to start now because it is very
important to find a way out of the current crisis,” said Yabi.
A European Union training mission has begun work with the Malian army
which, it is hoped, will eventually be able to execute its role
effectively. The UN-backed African-led international support mission to
Mali is also being set up to support the political and security process.
“In the short term, the foreign armies' presence is a stabilizing
factor. The French military, the [African troops] and the European
training mission for the Malian army are protecting the civilian
authority from undue intrusion of an army still largely under
putschist's control,” said ICG’s Yabi.
“In the medium and long term, there is need for much more than a
training mission with limited aims to actually reform this army. The
problems date back years, so to totally rebuild this army will need a
much more ambitious programme than what is being implemented now,” he
added.