As Andrzej Wilk reminds us, Anatoly Serdyukov was
recently fired as Russia’s Defense Minister. While his replacement,
Sergei Shoigu, is expected to instill a sense of calm at the Ministry,
significant changes within the high command and among civilian staff
shouldn’t be ruled out.
On 6 November, President Vladimir Putin dismissed Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, who had held that position since 2007. At the same time he appointed Sergei Shoigu, the governor of the Moscow region, to the post; several years earlier he was the minister for emergency situations. Serdyukov’s dismissal has been linked to the results of an investigation, in which the prime suspects are high-ranking Defence Ministry officials, protégés of the former head of the Ministry (one of them has been arrested).Serdyukov is to be a witness in proceedings concerning fraud and the embezzlement of state property in Oboronservis, a company established as part of the privatisation of the Russian Federation (RF)’s Armed Forces.
Commentary
- Although information embarrassing to Serdyukov has been in the public space for several months, his resignation is a rather extraordinary incident. A key minister in the Russian government, a member of the Security Council, a member of Putin's inner circle, and an in-law of former Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov, Serdyukov is departing in an atmosphere of a public scandal. One reason for Putin’s decision may be an attempt to demonstrate that he is exercising effective control over the key ministries and is taking the key decisions. This activity may be seen as the president’s reaction to the deterioration of the political situation, i.e. increasing criticism of his policies, and the increasing severity of the disputes among the ruling elite.
- Serdyukov was unpopular with the military. His appointment in February 2007 – as a civilian with no military experience – was poorly received by the command staff. However, his time in office saw a wide-ranging reform of the RF’s Armed Forces, which was implemented relatively effectively, including the most difficult part – the liquidation of bases and equipment inherited from the Soviet army. At the same time, together with an increase in Russia’s military spending, the Ministry of Defence under Serdyukov entered into a dispute with the military-industrial complex (known by the Russian abbreviation of OPK). The Ministry did not want to incur the costs of modernising the defence industry, and – by ceasing to purchase weaponry which did not meet the Army’s requirements – indirectly contributed to the weakening of many arms businesses which for various reasons had not invested in modernisation, or had undertaken it too slowly. This dispute was exacerbated after Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin took control of the OPK. Serdyukov’s dismissal should be seen as consistent with the interests of the defence industry.
Mr Andrzej Wilk writes for the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), based in Poland.
