Margaret Besheer
UNITED NATIONS - The
United Nations has deployed more than 200 unarmed observers to Syria who
are monitoring a month-old cease-fire that appears to be in jeopardy of
collapse. Increasingly, the U.N. monitors are getting caught up in the
violence.
The U.N. Security Council has authorized a monitoring mission of 300
unarmed military observers to be on the ground in Syria for an initial
period of only 90 days. The council has also demanded that they be given
free movement in the country.
After a slow start, the mission is nearly fully deployed. But in recent
days its convoys have had near-misses with roadside bombs raising
questions about its ability to carry out its mandate effectively and
keep its monitors safe.
U.N. Deputy Chief of Peacekeeping Edmond Mulet acknowledges the
monitors are facing a very difficult situation on the ground. “They are
there unarmed. There is no cease-fire. There is no peace agreement.
There is no dialogue between the parties. There is urban warfare. And
this is something we have never seen before. We have never placed our
military observers in a situation like this," he said.
But he says despite obstacles the monitors are venturing out. “They are
there to monitor a cease-fire and there is a violation of that
cease-fire they have to report that, and this is what they are doing.
They are reporting constantly about what they see and the attacks from
one side to another, et cetera," he said.
While the Syrian government's shelling of towns has abated and there
has been calm in some areas where the monitors have patrolled, they have
been unable to convince both sides to cease the violence.
Richard Gowan, associate director of New York University’s Center on
International Cooperation, says the observers are mainly there to open
the way for the beginning of a political process. “U.N. officials are
absolutely clear that this mission is a political token. It was deployed
to try and create some space for the [Kofi] Annan plan to work; to act
as a basis for talks between moderate opposition members and the
government," he said.
Kofi Annan is the joint U.N.-Arab League envoy for Syria. He has been
trying to mediate a political solution to the crisis, which is now in
its 15th month and has seen more than 9,000 people killed. But so far
neither side, government nor opposition, has come to the negotiating
table.
Some diplomats and analysts have drawn comparisons to when the United
Nations sent a force of thousands into Bosnia in 1992 to protect
civilians. While the objects of the Bosnian and Syrian missions were
different, both faced similar obstacles in that there was no cease-fire
in place ahead of their deployment.
Richard Kauzlarich was U.S. Ambassador to Bosnia-Herzegovina in the
late 1990s. He says one of the problems that plagued the Bosnian
mission, known as UNPROFOR, was the parties’ unwillingness to stop
fighting. “For whatever reasons, they saw war as the only solution to
the political problem and UNPROFOR was given the impossible mission of
trying to make peace in an environment where the people on the ground
were not interested in peace," he said.
He says the United Nations may face a similar dilemma in Syria if the
parties do not accept the U.N. as a presence to end the conflict and
bring the government and the opposition to the negotiating table.
Mr. Annan has made it clear that the stakes are high. Last week he told
the U.N. Security Council that although unacceptable human rights
abuses continue and all aspects of his peace plan have not been
implemented, there is no other option right now than the monitoring
mission. “I also told members of the [Security] council that I believe
that the U.N. supervision mission is possibly the only remaining chance
to stabilize the country. And I am sure I am not telling you any secret,
when I tell you that there is a profound concern that the country could
otherwise descend into full civil war and the implications of that are
quite frightening. We cannot allow that to happen," he said.
Given that dire assessment, there is reluctance to pull out the
observers, despite the dangers. Security Council members say that the
U.N. has no “Plan B” should the mission fail. So, Jeffrey Laurenti, a
U.N. analyst with the Century Foundation, says the monitoring mission is
likely to remain in Syria - for now. “It is a tough call on whether
just to throw in towel or see this as the last best hope even if it is
an ever dimming hope. I think right now the mood more generally in the
international community would be to try to stick it out with them to see
if this can in some way be a palliative; it is certainly not a cure,"
he said.
The crucial test will be whether the observers can help create the
space for a political solution to the crisis. Otherwise, there is the
danger that they will be trapped or simply police a crumbling
cease-fire.
The Security Council will have to decide whether it makes sense to
continue the mission in July when its 90-day mandate ends. Should the
monitors be caught up in any more violence or become the target of
attacks, that could strengthen doubts about whether the mission can help
bring peace to Syria.
